Mathematical model for estimating Artemia production capacity based on demand in aquaculture systems under uncertainty conditions

Abstract

Artemia spp. is the most widely used live feed in aquaculture, especially in the larval stages of fish and shrimp, where it directly influences their survival and growth. This study proposes a mathematical model to estimate Artemia production capacity based on projected demand in aquaculture systems. The model integrates demand estimation from fish and shrimp production, system productivity, and a classic capacity planning approach under conditions of demand and financial uncertainty. It calculates the plant's capacity, the timeframe for expansion, and the capacity of this expansion. A case study based on production systems in the province of Camagüey is presented, considering scenarios for shrimp and fish, specifically tilapia. The results show that the available production capacity is insufficient to meet projected demand, thus necessitating the implementation of intensive farming methods. The proposed approach is a useful tool for strategic planning and decision-making in aquaculture systems.